How Likely Is It That The Gulf Stream Will Actually Stop?

Posted in Abrupt Climate Change at 5:10 pm

There’s only about a 10% possibility (very unlikely) that there would be an abrupt climate change event in the 21st century according to the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (p. 16) It assumes things are too uncertain for projections past this century.  I believe it is based on the scenario (p. 18, A1B) that there is a rapid development and implementation of new efficient technology and a variety of fuels are used across the globe.  (That means everyone throws out their old refrigerators every 10 years and gets a new car frequently.)

Does considering that a 30-year old male with a new baby will probably buy life insurance for the next 20 years on his 5 1/2% chance of dieing put this in perspective? I’d keep working on the plan and really hope that we’re in the 90% scenario but don’t get too crazed over it.

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